Election of 2004
LINKS
| Abbreviations | Definitions | Sources |
BASICS
| Category | Result |
|---|---|
| Incumbent | George W. Bush (R) |
| Prior streak | R (1) |
| Prior five elections | R (3), D (2) |
| Population | 292,805,298 |
| States | 51 |
| Electoral votes | 538 |
| Popular votes | 122,295,345 |
| Voter turnout | 55.7% |
FIELD OF QUALIFIED CANDIDATES
| Candidate | Party | PI | Age | State | Position | Nom | Win | CS | ROP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George W. Bush | R | 9.3 | 58.32 | Texas | President | X | X | 78.71 | 85 |
| John Kerry | D | 6.6 | 60.89 | Massachusetts | Senator | X | — | 73.65 | 112 |
| John Edwards | D | 7.8 | 51.39 | North Carolina | Senator | — | — | 22.22 | 28 |
| Howard Dean | D | 6.0 | 55.96 | Vermont | Former governor | — | — | 13.32 | 22 |
| Wesley Clark | D | 4.2 | 59.86 | Arkansas | Former general | — | — | 12.00 | 29 |
| Joseph Lieberman | D | 7.2 | 62.69 | Connecticut | Senator | — | — | 11.04 | 15 |
| Richard Gephardt | D | 3.9 | 63.75 | Missouri | Representative | — | — | 10.23 | 26 |
GENERAL ELECTION
| Candidate | Party | SC | PV | PV% | EV | EV% | PV*EQ | EV*EQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George W. Bush | R | 31 | 62,040,610 | 50.73% | 286 | 53.16% | 50,730,148 | 286 |
| John Kerry | D | 20 | 59,028,439 | 48.27% | 251 | 46.65% | 48,267,118 | 251 |
| John Edwards | D | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 1 | 0.19% | 0 | 1 |
REGIONAL SPLITS
| Candidate | Party | PV% | East | South | Midwest | West | EV | East | South | Midwest | West |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George W. Bush | R | 50.73% | 43.36% | 57.26% | 50.78% | 48.72% | 286 | 5 | 168 | 66 | 47 |
| John Kerry | D | 48.27% | 55.45% | 42.01% | 48.37% | 49.87% | 251 | 117 | 0 | 57 | 77 |
| John Edwards | D | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
PV BY STATES
| State | Total PV | Bush | Kerry | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 1,883,449 | 1,176,394 | 693,933 | 13,122 |
| Alaska | 312,598 | 190,889 | 111,025 | 10,684 |
| Arizona | 2,012,585 | 1,104,294 | 893,524 | 14,767 |
| Arkansas | 1,054,945 | 572,898 | 469,953 | 12,094 |
| California | 12,421,852 | 5,509,826 | 6,745,485 | 166,541 |
| Colorado | 2,130,330 | 1,101,255 | 1,001,732 | 27,343 |
| Connecticut | 1,578,769 | 693,826 | 857,488 | 27,455 |
| Delaware | 375,190 | 171,660 | 200,152 | 3,378 |
| District of Columbia | 227,586 | 21,256 | 202,970 | 3,360 |
| Florida | 7,609,810 | 3,964,522 | 3,583,544 | 61,744 |
| Georgia | 3,301,875 | 1,914,254 | 1,366,149 | 21,472 |
| Hawaii | 429,013 | 194,191 | 231,708 | 3,114 |
| Idaho | 598,447 | 409,235 | 181,098 | 8,114 |
| Illinois | 5,274,322 | 2,345,946 | 2,891,550 | 36,826 |
| Indiana | 2,468,002 | 1,479,438 | 969,011 | 19,553 |
| Iowa | 1,506,908 | 751,957 | 741,898 | 13,053 |
| Kansas | 1,187,756 | 736,456 | 434,993 | 16,307 |
| Kentucky | 1,795,882 | 1,069,439 | 712,733 | 13,710 |
| Louisiana | 1,943,106 | 1,102,169 | 820,299 | 20,638 |
| Maine | 740,752 | 330,201 | 396,842 | 13,709 |
| Maryland | 2,386,678 | 1,024,703 | 1,334,493 | 27,482 |
| Massachusetts | 2,912,388 | 1,071,109 | 1,803,800 | 37,479 |
| Michigan | 4,839,252 | 2,313,746 | 2,479,183 | 46,323 |
| Minnesota | 2,828,387 | 1,346,695 | 1,445,014 | 36,678 |
| Mississippi | 1,152,145 | 684,981 | 458,094 | 9,070 |
| Missouri | 2,731,364 | 1,455,713 | 1,259,171 | 16,480 |
| Montana | 450,445 | 266,063 | 173,710 | 10,672 |
| Nebraska | 778,186 | 512,814 | 254,328 | 11,044 |
| Nevada | 829,587 | 418,690 | 397,190 | 13,707 |
| New Hampshire | 677,738 | 331,237 | 340,511 | 5,990 |
| New Jersey | 3,611,691 | 1,670,003 | 1,911,430 | 30,258 |
| New Mexico | 756,304 | 376,930 | 370,942 | 8,432 |
| New York | 7,391,036 | 2,962,567 | 4,314,280 | 114,189 |
| North Carolina | 3,501,007 | 1,961,166 | 1,525,849 | 13,992 |
| North Dakota | 312,833 | 196,651 | 111,052 | 5,130 |
| Ohio | 5,627,908 | 2,859,768 | 2,741,167 | 26,973 |
| Oklahoma | 1,463,758 | 959,792 | 503,966 | — |
| Oregon | 1,836,782 | 866,831 | 943,163 | 26,788 |
| Pennsylvania | 5,769,590 | 2,793,847 | 2,938,095 | 37,648 |
| Rhode Island | 437,134 | 169,046 | 259,760 | 8,328 |
| South Carolina | 1,617,730 | 937,974 | 661,699 | 18,057 |
| South Dakota | 388,215 | 232,584 | 149,244 | 6,387 |
| Tennessee | 2,437,319 | 1,384,375 | 1,036,477 | 16,467 |
| Texas | 7,410,765 | 4,526,917 | 2,832,704 | 51,144 |
| Utah | 927,844 | 663,742 | 241,199 | 22,903 |
| Vermont | 312,309 | 121,180 | 184,067 | 7,062 |
| Virginia | 3,198,367 | 1,716,959 | 1,454,742 | 26,666 |
| Washington | 2,859,084 | 1,304,894 | 1,510,201 | 43,989 |
| West Virginia | 755,887 | 423,778 | 326,541 | 5,568 |
| Wisconsin | 2,997,007 | 1,478,120 | 1,489,504 | 29,383 |
| Wyoming | 243,428 | 167,629 | 70,776 | 5,023 |
| Total | 122,295,345 | 62,040,610 | 59,028,439 | 1,226,296 |
PV% BY STATES
| State | PV winner | Bush | Kerry | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Bush | 62.46% | 36.84% | 0.70% |
| Alaska | Bush | 61.07% | 35.52% | 3.42% |
| Arizona | Bush | 54.87% | 44.40% | 0.73% |
| Arkansas | Bush | 54.31% | 44.55% | 1.15% |
| California | Kerry | 44.36% | 54.30% | 1.34% |
| Colorado | Bush | 51.69% | 47.02% | 1.28% |
| Connecticut | Kerry | 43.95% | 54.31% | 1.74% |
| Delaware | Kerry | 45.75% | 53.35% | 0.90% |
| District of Columbia | Kerry | 9.34% | 89.18% | 1.48% |
| Florida | Bush | 52.10% | 47.09% | 0.81% |
| Georgia | Bush | 57.98% | 41.38% | 0.65% |
| Hawaii | Kerry | 45.27% | 54.01% | 0.73% |
| Idaho | Bush | 68.38% | 30.26% | 1.36% |
| Illinois | Kerry | 44.48% | 54.82% | 0.70% |
| Indiana | Bush | 59.95% | 39.26% | 0.79% |
| Iowa | Bush | 49.90% | 49.23% | 0.87% |
| Kansas | Bush | 62.00% | 36.62% | 1.37% |
| Kentucky | Bush | 59.55% | 39.69% | 0.76% |
| Louisiana | Bush | 56.72% | 42.22% | 1.06% |
| Maine | Kerry | 44.58% | 53.57% | 1.85% |
| Maryland | Kerry | 42.93% | 55.91% | 1.15% |
| Massachusetts | Kerry | 36.78% | 61.94% | 1.29% |
| Michigan | Kerry | 47.81% | 51.23% | 0.96% |
| Minnesota | Kerry | 47.61% | 51.09% | 1.30% |
| Mississippi | Bush | 59.45% | 39.76% | 0.79% |
| Missouri | Bush | 53.30% | 46.10% | 0.60% |
| Montana | Bush | 59.07% | 38.56% | 2.37% |
| Nebraska | Bush | 65.90% | 32.68% | 1.42% |
| Nevada | Bush | 50.47% | 47.88% | 1.65% |
| New Hampshire | Kerry | 48.87% | 50.24% | 0.88% |
| New Jersey | Kerry | 46.24% | 52.92% | 0.84% |
| New Mexico | Bush | 49.84% | 49.05% | 1.12% |
| New York | Kerry | 40.08% | 58.37% | 1.55% |
| North Carolina | Bush | 56.02% | 43.58% | 0.40% |
| North Dakota | Bush | 62.86% | 35.50% | 1.64% |
| Ohio | Bush | 50.81% | 48.71% | 0.48% |
| Oklahoma | Bush | 65.57% | 34.43% | — |
| Oregon | Kerry | 47.19% | 51.35% | 1.46% |
| Pennsylvania | Kerry | 48.42% | 50.92% | 0.65% |
| Rhode Island | Kerry | 38.67% | 59.42% | 1.91% |
| South Carolina | Bush | 57.98% | 40.90% | 1.12% |
| South Dakota | Bush | 59.91% | 38.44% | 1.65% |
| Tennessee | Bush | 56.80% | 42.53% | 0.68% |
| Texas | Bush | 61.09% | 38.22% | 0.69% |
| Utah | Bush | 71.54% | 26.00% | 2.47% |
| Vermont | Kerry | 38.80% | 58.94% | 2.26% |
| Virginia | Bush | 53.68% | 45.48% | 0.83% |
| Washington | Kerry | 45.64% | 52.82% | 1.54% |
| West Virginia | Bush | 56.06% | 43.20% | 0.74% |
| Wisconsin | Kerry | 49.32% | 49.70% | 0.98% |
| Wyoming | Bush | 68.86% | 29.08% | 2.06% |
| Total | Bush | 50.73% | 48.27% | 1.00% |
EV BY STATES
| State | Total EV | Bush | Kerry | Edwards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| California | 55 | 0 | 55 | 0 |
| Colorado | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| Delaware | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| District of Columbia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Florida | 27 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Illinois | 21 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| Indiana | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Iowa | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Kansas | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Maine | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Maryland | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| Michigan | 17 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 0 | 9 | 1 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Montana | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevada | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 0 | 15 | 0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| New York | 31 | 0 | 31 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Oregon | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas | 34 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
| Utah | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Vermont | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Washington | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 538 | 286 | 251 | 1 |
MARGINS AND FLIPS
| State | PV winner | Runnerup | Gap (votes) | Gap (points) | Flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Bush | Kerry | 482,461 | 25.62 | 241,231 |
| Alaska | Bush | Kerry | 79,864 | 25.55 | 39,933 |
| Arizona | Bush | Kerry | 210,770 | 10.47 | 105,386 |
| Arkansas | Bush | Kerry | 102,945 | 9.76 | 51,473 |
| California | Kerry | Bush | 1,235,659 | 9.95 | 617,830 |
| Colorado | Bush | Kerry | 99,523 | 4.67 | 49,762 |
| Connecticut | Kerry | Bush | 163,662 | 10.37 | 81,832 |
| Delaware | Kerry | Bush | 28,492 | 7.59 | 14,247 |
| District of Columbia | Kerry | Bush | 181,714 | 79.84 | 90,858 |
| Florida | Bush | Kerry | 380,978 | 5.01 | 190,490 |
| Georgia | Bush | Kerry | 548,105 | 16.60 | 274,053 |
| Hawaii | Kerry | Bush | 37,517 | 8.75 | 18,759 |
| Idaho | Bush | Kerry | 228,137 | 38.12 | 114,069 |
| Illinois | Kerry | Bush | 545,604 | 10.34 | 272,803 |
| Indiana | Bush | Kerry | 510,427 | 20.68 | 255,214 |
| Iowa | Bush | Kerry | 10,059 | 0.67 | 5,030 |
| Kansas | Bush | Kerry | 301,463 | 25.38 | 150,732 |
| Kentucky | Bush | Kerry | 356,706 | 19.86 | 178,354 |
| Louisiana | Bush | Kerry | 281,870 | 14.51 | 140,936 |
| Maine | Kerry | Bush | 66,641 | 9.00 | 33,321 |
| Maryland | Kerry | Bush | 309,790 | 12.98 | 154,896 |
| Massachusetts | Kerry | Bush | 732,691 | 25.16 | 366,346 |
| Michigan | Kerry | Bush | 165,437 | 3.42 | 82,719 |
| Minnesota | Kerry | Bush | 98,319 | 3.48 | 49,160 |
| Mississippi | Bush | Kerry | 226,887 | 19.69 | 113,444 |
| Missouri | Bush | Kerry | 196,542 | 7.20 | 98,272 |
| Montana | Bush | Kerry | 92,353 | 20.50 | 46,177 |
| Nebraska | Bush | Kerry | 258,486 | 33.22 | 129,244 |
| Nevada | Bush | Kerry | 21,500 | 2.59 | 10,751 |
| New Hampshire | Kerry | Bush | 9,274 | 1.37 | 4,638 |
| New Jersey | Kerry | Bush | 241,427 | 6.68 | 120,714 |
| New Mexico | Bush | Kerry | 5,988 | 0.79 | 2,995 |
| New York | Kerry | Bush | 1,351,713 | 18.29 | 675,857 |
| North Carolina | Bush | Kerry | 435,317 | 12.43 | 217,659 |
| North Dakota | Bush | Kerry | 85,599 | 27.36 | 42,800 |
| Ohio | Bush | Kerry | 118,601 | 2.11 | 59,301 |
| Oklahoma | Bush | Kerry | 455,826 | 31.14 | 227,914 |
| Oregon | Kerry | Bush | 76,332 | 4.16 | 38,167 |
| Pennsylvania | Kerry | Bush | 144,248 | 2.50 | 72,125 |
| Rhode Island | Kerry | Bush | 90,714 | 20.75 | 45,358 |
| South Carolina | Bush | Kerry | 276,275 | 17.08 | 138,138 |
| South Dakota | Bush | Kerry | 83,340 | 21.47 | 41,671 |
| Tennessee | Bush | Kerry | 347,898 | 14.27 | 173,950 |
| Texas | Bush | Kerry | 1,694,213 | 22.86 | 847,107 |
| Utah | Bush | Kerry | 422,543 | 45.54 | 211,272 |
| Vermont | Kerry | Bush | 62,887 | 20.14 | 31,444 |
| Virginia | Bush | Kerry | 262,217 | 8.20 | 131,109 |
| Washington | Kerry | Bush | 205,307 | 7.18 | 102,654 |
| West Virginia | Bush | Kerry | 97,237 | 12.86 | 48,619 |
| Wisconsin | Kerry | Bush | 11,384 | 0.38 | 5,693 |
| Wyoming | Bush | Kerry | 96,853 | 39.79 | 48,427 |
| Total | Bush | Kerry | 3,012,171 | 2.46 | 1,506,086 |